INDONESIA’S POLICY ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: Strategy, Challenges and Regional Implications

Abstract

This study examines the evolving dynamics of the South China Sea as a result of the interaction between international law, national sovereignty, geopolitical rivalry, and economic interdependence. It highlights China’s incremental “salami-slicing” strategy in consolidating its claims, as well as the challenges posed to regional stability and the rules-based international order. Indonesia’s position is analyzed as a non-claimant state with direct interests in the North Natuna Sea, where it adopts a dual approach combining assertive sovereignty enforcement and active diplomacy based on UNCLOS 1982. The study argues that Indonesia’s calibrated combination of UNCLOS-based diplomacy and credible maritime enforcement offers a strategic model for defending sovereign rights without escalating great-power rivalry in the South China Sea. At the regional level, ASEAN’s role through ASEAN Centrality, the Code of Conduct (COC), and confidence-building measures remains crucial but constrained by internal divisions and external pressures, particularly from US–China rivalry. The study also identifies global crises, including developments in Venezuela and Iran, as catalysts that may intensify tensions in the South China Sea by exposing weaknesses in the international legal order.     The findings underscore the need for strengthening international law, enhancing regional unity, and promoting strategic autonomy through defense capacity, diplomacy, and inclusive cooperation. Ultimately, sustainable stability depends on balancing legal enforcement, power dynamics, and multilateral engagement.