Climate-Security Nexus: Enso-Driven Rainfall Variability And Maritime Security Vulnerability In Indonesian Strategic Waters

Abstract

Indonesia's strategic maritime zones face escalating security challenges exacerbated by climate variability. This study examines the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven precipitation variability and maritime security vulnerabilities 
across five critical Indonesian maritime zones over a 27-year period (2000-2024). Using GPM IMERG satellite precipitation data and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) records, we analyzed 324 monthly observations to quantify ENSO-rainfall correlations and assess 
security implications. Results reveal significant negative correlations between ONI and rainfall in Sulawesi Sea (r = -0.553, p < 0.001), Maluku Waters (r = -0.494, p < 0.001), and Makassar Strait (r = -0.424, p < 0.001). El Niño events correspond to 14-42% rainfall 
deficits, while La Niña phases show 16-35% increases relative to normal conditions. Integrated vulnerability assessment combining ENSO sensitivity (40%), rainfall variability (30%), and baseline security threats (30%) identifies Sulawesi Sea (composite index: 75.0) 
and Maluku Waters (67.8) as critical priority zones. The study demonstrates that El Niño induced droughts correlate with increased livelihood stress among coastal communities, potentially elevating recruitment vulnerability for piracy and maritime terrorism. Conversely, La Niña-associated extreme rainfall reduces patrol visibility and operational capacity. We propose an ENSO-linked early warning system integrating 3-6 month ONI forecasts with dynamic security deployment protocols. Implementation of climate-adaptive maritime security frameworks could enhance operational effectiveness by 25-40% during extreme ENSO events, representing a paradigm shift toward predictive threat management in the Anthropocene.