Maritime Insecurity: Lessons From Three Global Flashpoints

Abstract

Across these three case studies – The Red Sea, the Somalian Coast and the Ukraine-Russian war in the Black Sea – we have identified five major factors that have compromised maritime security. We are more likely to see maritime insecurity in areas where there is a past history of problems, where there is weak or divided state enforcement capabilities and where malign actors can secure maximum leverage at maritime chokepoints. Areas of concern tend to multiply with negative affects spilling over into adjacent regions. Finally, and we suggested that this is perhaps the most important factor, all specific local and regional issues are exacerbated and often overtaken altogether by war at sea. The next step in this research is to apply these five general characteristics of maritime insecurity built from the analysis of the case studies to our own region, the Indo-Pacific. Can we identify areas of concern and particular sites where there is an intense concentration of maritime insecurity? That will be subject of our next article.